A special category of long-term forecasts is considered, the object of forecasting is not the anomalies of the hydrometeorological regime (temperature, precipitation), but the dates of its sharp change. Methodological issues are raised to develop adequate methods for estimating such forecasts. The possibility of applying the method of accuracy of short-term forecasts to the justification of long-term forecasts is substantiated.
The Earth’s climate system (ECS) is considered as a linear system whose input is a change in the solar constant, and the output is an anomaly of the globally averaged surface temperature. As a result of the restoration, the impulse response of the system was obtained at time intervals up to 100 months. It has been shown that the response time of ECS can be characterized by a time constant of 1.305 ± 0.026 months. The sensitivity of ECS to radiative forcing is 0.320±0.074 K W-1m2, and the positive feedback coefficient is 1.07±0.25.
The article features the results of comprehensive studies of Maklasheevka II fortified settlement carried out at the intersection of natural and humanitarian sciences, and one of the area of this work was integrative soil-archaeological studies. This approach includes a cross-spectrum archaeological and pedological analysis of the ancient soils.
A new method of processing the actual material of lichen-indication studies, based on the study of morphological changes in the lichen thallus, is proposed. Assessment of the degree of technogenic impact on the components of the environment from a linear source of atmospheric pollution is performed by calculating and correlating the fractal index of anthropogenic load levels and the processes of its biotic compensation.
The aim of the work is to assess the contribution of vehicle emissions to air pollution of the Irkutsk agglomeration, on the example of a large industrial and transport city of Angarsk. In order to achieve the goal, emission calculations were carried out on the basis of field surveys of the composition and traffic intensity of vehicles at major intersections of Angarsk during peak hours. With the help of the program complex «Ecologist» calculations of concentrations of the main harmful substances emitted into the atmosphere by vehicles were carried out.
Modern geosystems are formed under the influence of two main factors that are in close interaction with each other. We are talking about natural and anthropogenic factors, which are essentially opposite. The stability of geosystems is found under conditions when they are influenced by various factors and phenomena that have antagonistic characteristics. The methods used are comparative geographical, informational, paleogeographic. The materials obtained in the course of natural observations, the work of scientists, information from various funds have been used.
The article discusses the conditions and the need of urbanization in the country. High natural growth and the agrarian type of economy are the cause of employment problems. Internal migration in the country is directed to cities, which leads to the need to develop urbanization. The urbanization models that prevail in the country are peripheral and concentration. The classification and typology of the cities in Turkmenistan are given. The prospects of the urbanization process are estimated.
The article presents the study results of changes in the plant cover of ribbon forests of the Priobsky Plateau during the Holocene. According to satellite imagery data, a change in the role of different types of vegetation cover, corresponding to the current environmentally friendly conditions of the steppe and forest-steppe zones has been established.
The typological zoning of the main pipeline route «Druzhba 2» has been carried out as far as possible manifestations of engineeringgeological processes appear. Seven groups of processes are singled out on the agent of a relief formation, each of which includes several types allocated on the genesis of process.
The necessity of formation and development of supra-regional innovation systems within the country for the effective flow of the innovation cycle, dissemination of knowledge and innovations is substantiated. The properties of the regional innovation system including those relevant in the Russian conditions of low population density and economic activity are discussed. The hypothesis that the macro-regions of Russia are considered as a super-regional innovation systems is tested. The regions – scientific and innovative centers-are singled out.
The article presents a forecast of grain quality of spring wheat, obtained on the basis of the correlation of grain protein content with the average monthly air temperature in June. The correlation coefficient of the found dependence was 0.75, the equation justification was 94%. The statistical significance of the model is confirmed using Student’s criterion, the analysis of residual deviations and using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion.
The article discusses the creation of a comfortable urban environment in the central part of the city of Saratov. The data on reducing the area of green spaces, the results of the assessment of air pollution from vehicles against the backdrop of an unfavorable terrain are presented. It is established that the indicators of complex environmental pollution of the pedestrian zone of Rakhov Street have a tendency to increase after its reconstruction.
This article considers the methodology for constructing a digital elevation model and its derivatives for analyzing the spatial distribution of linear erosion processes using the territory of the Khvalynsky district as an example. The authors propose the creation of a refined terrain model based on SRTM radar data, topographic maps and the interpretation of Earth remote sensing data. The creation technology is described and a comparative analysis of the refined model with the base SRTM is carried out.
The history of the study of the southwestern part of the Crimean coast between cape Aya and сape Sarych was considered. The conditions determining the development of exogenous geological processes on the coasts studied were characterized. They are: the type of coast, the tectonic construction and the direction of tectonic movements, maritime relief, lithological composition of the coasts. Genesis, morphometric characteristics, granulometric and material composition of the beaches forming here are described.
The article is devoted to the modern economic and geographical development of one of the main industrial and agricultural subregions of the Irkutsk region, which transformed in the time dynamics from a large Soviet, post-Soviet industrial city of regional subordination into the modern Angarsk urban district (hereinafter AGO). The AGO structure is a «modular designer» from the city of Angarsk and the non-urban areas (the settlement of Meget, village Savateevka and Odinsk and 11 small settlements).
The development of urban agglomerations is connected with the solution of the issues of territorial zones allocation and ensuring their transport accessibility. The purpose of the article is to determine the theoretical and methodological foundations of this subject. A review of foreign studies on the topic of extra-street passenger transport is conducted. The terminology used in foreign literature is defined. On the example of urban metropolitan areas of the USA, the development of public transport and the position of researchers on this issue are considered.
The article raises the question of complementarity of economic structures of a number of the Volga and Ural regions within the supraregional formation, which can be the Volga economic region or the Volga-Ural macro-region. The degree of changes in the structure of the manufacturing industry of the Volga regions over the decade is estimated, including taking into account the dynamics of the production of innovative products.
The article discusses the trends of educational migration to Russia, including the geography of migrants’ origin. The main stream of educational migrants comes from neighboring countries. To smooth out the country’s demographic problems, educational migrants are the best migrants. These are highly qualified young people who have undergone adaptation and integration during their studies. The country needs to break the stereotype of migrants from Central Asia only as low-skilled workers.
The paper is devoted to suggested semi-empirical method for determination of air relative humidity based on results of measurements of precipitated water vapors using sun photometers. The analysis of known Butler method make it possible to predict the presence of extremes in functional dependence of precipitated water vapors on relative humidity on the earth surface.
The article provides a comprehensive assessment of the location of social services facilities in the context of municipal regions of the Baikal region. Based on the results obtained, a grouping of territories was compiled according to the degree of provision with complex centers, boarding houses and home-based services. It was revealed that the main factors in the organization of social infrastructure facilities are the geographical location, the high concentration of the population in the main resettlement zone and the high level of urbanization.